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How New Tariffs Will Impact Retail Pricing and Consumer Behavior

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How New Tariffs Will Impact Retail Pricing and Consumer Behavior

4.4.2025

Overview

Introduction

Recent developments in U.S. trade policy have introduced significant tariffs that will substantially impact retail brands and their supply chains. On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” targeting numerous countries, including key footwear & retail manufacturing hubs:

  • China: An additional 34% tariff, augmenting existing duties.
  • Vietnam: A 46% tariff.
  • Indonesia: A 32% tariff.
  • Cambodia: A 49% tariff.
  • Bangladesh: A 37% tariff.

Broader Industry Implications:

The tariffs are expected to lead to increased production costs, which may be passed on to consumers through higher prices. The average U.S. import tariff rate on apparel is projected to rise from 14.5% in 2024 to 30.6%, potentially resulting in $26 billion in duties on apparel imports. 

Given that approximately 99% of footwear & apparel sold in the U.S. is imported, primarily from Asia, the industry faces significant challenges. Establishing domestic manufacturing infrastructure would require substantial time and investment, making it an impractical short-term solution. 

Considerations for Companies:

  • Supply Chain Diversification: Exploring alternative manufacturing locations, though options may be limited due to the widespread nature of the tariffs.
  • Cost Management: Assessing strategies to absorb or offset increased costs without significantly impacting consumer prices.
  • Policy Monitoring: Staying informed about ongoing trade policy developments to anticipate and react to further changes.

These tariffs represent a substantial shift in the trade environment for footwear brands, necessitating strategic adjustments to navigate the evolving landscape.

Consumer Research On Tariffs:

  • As part of our ongoing efforts to understand consumer sentiment around global trade policies and their impact on purchasing behavior, MakerSights conducted a nationwide survey focused on tariffs and price sensitivity. 
  • The study captured responses from 387 U.S.-based participants across various age groups and financial mindsets. 
  • The survey explored consumer awareness of tariffs, confidence in understanding how they affect pricing, attitudes toward rising costs, and the potential behavioral shifts that could result from continued inflation or product price hikes. 

Key Insights

High Awareness of Tariffs

  • Nearly 80% of respondents have heard about recent changes in U.S. trade policies (tariffs), indicating strong baseline awareness around the topic.

Confidence in Understanding Tariffs Varies Widely

  • While 40% feel “somewhat confident” and 35% feel “very confident” in their understanding of how tariffs affect pricing, around 25% report lower confidence levels, including 8% who are “not at all confident.”

Price Sensitivity Is High

  • When faced with a 10–20% price increase on a product they usually buy, 58% say they would look for a similar, cheaper product, while 17% would wait for a discount. Only 14% would still buy the product at the higher price.

Most Consumers Are Actively Avoiding Price Increases

  • Over half of respondents say they “actively avoid buying items that have recently gone up in price,” reflecting a cautious spending mindset amid inflation or economic uncertainty.

Top Categories at Risk of Cutbacks

According to the consumers, if prices continue to rise, the categories most at risk of consumer cutbacks include:

  • Travel and experiences (e.g. vacations, concerts, events): 37.7%
  • Accessories (e.g. handbags, sunglasses, jewelry): 35.9%
  • Apparel and footwear: 33.3%
  • Subscriptions (e.g. streaming services, gym memberships): 32.3%
  • Home goods (e.g. furniture, kitchenware, bedding): 28.9%

Country of Origin Matters, But Not to All

  • About 47% say it’s at least “somewhat important” where a product is made, while 20% say it’s “very important.” However, nearly a third find it “not very” or “not at all” important.

Mixed Influence of “Made In” Label

  • 45% say seeing “Made in [Country]” has no impact on their purchase decision, while 36% say it does affect them—mostly negatively. 18% are unsure, suggesting room for education or influence.

Cautious Financial Mindsets Dominate

  • Over 50% are “watching spending carefully” or “cutting back on most purchases,” while only 10% say they’re spending freely. This highlights a risk-averse consumer base.

Concern About the Economy Is Significant

  • 43% of respondents are “very concerned” about the current state of the economy, and another 40% are “somewhat concerned.” Only a small minority express low concern levels.

How MakerSights Can Help

1. Global Line Optimization

  • Objective: Help brands prioritize the right products to bring to market as costs rise.
  • Why Now: With tariffs driving up COGS, brands may need to cut or delay certain SKUs to maintain margins.
  • How We Can Help: We can use line architecture testing to identify which styles and silhouettes resonate most with consumers—ensuring only the most promising and margin-sustaining products move forward.

2. Market Line Adoption

  • Objective: Refine assortments by region to match consumer demand and reduce overproduction risk.
  • Why Now: Brands may shift production away from Asia and need to re-balance regional assortments accordingly.
  • How We Can Help: We can run regional preference tests to help brands build leaner, more targeted assortments based on consumer preference and price elasticity by market.

3. Pricing Sensitivity Testing (via Conjoint Analysis):

  • Objective: Understand what consumers are actually willing to pay.
  • Why Now: Brands might need to raise prices—but they need to do it surgically to avoid backlash.
  • How We Can Help: We can conduct claims and price elasticity testing to find the right balance between price increases and perceived value, especially for core or carryover styles that are tariff-impacted.

4. Brand Asset Research

  • Objective: Refine storytelling around price increases or shifts in sourcing.
  • Why Now: Some consumers will notice higher prices or fewer colorways—and messaging will matter more than ever.
  • How We Can Help: We can use creative testing to identify the most effective way to communicate product benefits, sustainability angles (e.g., “Made in Mexico” instead of “Made in China”), or justify cost changes.

⭐️ Have questions or want to dig deeper? Get in touch with us today!

Key Takeaways

Methodology

Introduction

Recent developments in U.S. trade policy have introduced significant tariffs that will substantially impact retail brands and their supply chains. On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” targeting numerous countries, including key footwear & retail manufacturing hubs:

  • China: An additional 34% tariff, augmenting existing duties.
  • Vietnam: A 46% tariff.
  • Indonesia: A 32% tariff.
  • Cambodia: A 49% tariff.
  • Bangladesh: A 37% tariff.

Broader Industry Implications:

The tariffs are expected to lead to increased production costs, which may be passed on to consumers through higher prices. The average U.S. import tariff rate on apparel is projected to rise from 14.5% in 2024 to 30.6%, potentially resulting in $26 billion in duties on apparel imports. 

Given that approximately 99% of footwear & apparel sold in the U.S. is imported, primarily from Asia, the industry faces significant challenges. Establishing domestic manufacturing infrastructure would require substantial time and investment, making it an impractical short-term solution. 

Considerations for Companies:

  • Supply Chain Diversification: Exploring alternative manufacturing locations, though options may be limited due to the widespread nature of the tariffs.
  • Cost Management: Assessing strategies to absorb or offset increased costs without significantly impacting consumer prices.
  • Policy Monitoring: Staying informed about ongoing trade policy developments to anticipate and react to further changes.

These tariffs represent a substantial shift in the trade environment for footwear brands, necessitating strategic adjustments to navigate the evolving landscape.

Consumer Research On Tariffs:

  • As part of our ongoing efforts to understand consumer sentiment around global trade policies and their impact on purchasing behavior, MakerSights conducted a nationwide survey focused on tariffs and price sensitivity. 
  • The study captured responses from 387 U.S.-based participants across various age groups and financial mindsets. 
  • The survey explored consumer awareness of tariffs, confidence in understanding how they affect pricing, attitudes toward rising costs, and the potential behavioral shifts that could result from continued inflation or product price hikes. 

Key Insights

High Awareness of Tariffs

  • Nearly 80% of respondents have heard about recent changes in U.S. trade policies (tariffs), indicating strong baseline awareness around the topic.

Confidence in Understanding Tariffs Varies Widely

  • While 40% feel “somewhat confident” and 35% feel “very confident” in their understanding of how tariffs affect pricing, around 25% report lower confidence levels, including 8% who are “not at all confident.”

Price Sensitivity Is High

  • When faced with a 10–20% price increase on a product they usually buy, 58% say they would look for a similar, cheaper product, while 17% would wait for a discount. Only 14% would still buy the product at the higher price.

Most Consumers Are Actively Avoiding Price Increases

  • Over half of respondents say they “actively avoid buying items that have recently gone up in price,” reflecting a cautious spending mindset amid inflation or economic uncertainty.

Top Categories at Risk of Cutbacks

According to the consumers, if prices continue to rise, the categories most at risk of consumer cutbacks include:

  • Travel and experiences (e.g. vacations, concerts, events): 37.7%
  • Accessories (e.g. handbags, sunglasses, jewelry): 35.9%
  • Apparel and footwear: 33.3%
  • Subscriptions (e.g. streaming services, gym memberships): 32.3%
  • Home goods (e.g. furniture, kitchenware, bedding): 28.9%

Country of Origin Matters, But Not to All

  • About 47% say it’s at least “somewhat important” where a product is made, while 20% say it’s “very important.” However, nearly a third find it “not very” or “not at all” important.

Mixed Influence of “Made In” Label

  • 45% say seeing “Made in [Country]” has no impact on their purchase decision, while 36% say it does affect them—mostly negatively. 18% are unsure, suggesting room for education or influence.

Cautious Financial Mindsets Dominate

  • Over 50% are “watching spending carefully” or “cutting back on most purchases,” while only 10% say they’re spending freely. This highlights a risk-averse consumer base.

Concern About the Economy Is Significant

  • 43% of respondents are “very concerned” about the current state of the economy, and another 40% are “somewhat concerned.” Only a small minority express low concern levels.

How MakerSights Can Help

1. Global Line Optimization

  • Objective: Help brands prioritize the right products to bring to market as costs rise.
  • Why Now: With tariffs driving up COGS, brands may need to cut or delay certain SKUs to maintain margins.
  • How We Can Help: We can use line architecture testing to identify which styles and silhouettes resonate most with consumers—ensuring only the most promising and margin-sustaining products move forward.

2. Market Line Adoption

  • Objective: Refine assortments by region to match consumer demand and reduce overproduction risk.
  • Why Now: Brands may shift production away from Asia and need to re-balance regional assortments accordingly.
  • How We Can Help: We can run regional preference tests to help brands build leaner, more targeted assortments based on consumer preference and price elasticity by market.

3. Pricing Sensitivity Testing (via Conjoint Analysis):

  • Objective: Understand what consumers are actually willing to pay.
  • Why Now: Brands might need to raise prices—but they need to do it surgically to avoid backlash.
  • How We Can Help: We can conduct claims and price elasticity testing to find the right balance between price increases and perceived value, especially for core or carryover styles that are tariff-impacted.

4. Brand Asset Research

  • Objective: Refine storytelling around price increases or shifts in sourcing.
  • Why Now: Some consumers will notice higher prices or fewer colorways—and messaging will matter more than ever.
  • How We Can Help: We can use creative testing to identify the most effective way to communicate product benefits, sustainability angles (e.g., “Made in Mexico” instead of “Made in China”), or justify cost changes.

⭐️ Have questions or want to dig deeper? Get in touch with us today!